I've been looking around for exact numbers, even estimated numbers, but I can't find anything concrete so I'll have to work with what I can. Looking at sites like guild ox and wow progress, if they are indeed accurate which I doubt, it would seem that around 700,000, estimated, characters have killed morchok on normal difficulty. I'll take this number with a grain of salt because I can not be completely certain of its accuracy and I suggest you do so as well while reading this post.
Even more than not being certain of its accuracy is the issue that I find it amazingly hard to believe that only 700,000 people have defeated the easiest first boss of any raid ever in the history of warcraft.
If the 10.2M number of active subscribers is correct and only 700,000 characters have defeated the entry level boss this late after its release we have to believe that the true number of raiders is very small.
Remember, sites like guild ox and wow progress only count what is entered to it, which can skew the results. They also only count characters, which can skew the results as well. Just think of people like myself with at least a dozen 85s that have killed morchok or further on all of them. My 12 characters that have done it are counted as 12 of that 700,000 and not one, which would be more accurate as all 12 of them are indeed just one person, me. There are at least 15 people in my guild alone that have done DS with at least 5 characters. I would say the average raider has at least 3 characters that have, or are capable of, defeating morchok.
So that skews the results as well. The 700,000 number is not accurate when looking for the actual number of subscribers that have downed at least the first boss. Those 700,000 characters that have killed morchok should be divided by at least 3 to reflect people, otherwise known as subscribers, and not characters. Possibly even divided by more, being there are people like me that have done it on way more than one character. Then we have to consider all those people that have downed it in guilds not listed or people that are guildless.
So if we are looking for subscribers we need to lower that 700,000 number because of multiple characters being played by the same person and increase that number because of people that killed it that are not listed. So for arguments sake, lets play pretend and say that lowering it for one and increasing it for the other makes it what it is, 700,000.
If, remember this number is pure speculation and probably not even close to accurate, 700,000 people, not characters, have killed morchok that means that out of a subscriber base of 10.2M people that under 7% of warcraft's player base has even killed the easiest boss in the last tier of raiding this expansion.
Lets get even more angled on that. Less then 7% of subscribers in the game have killed the easiest entry boss ever in the history of the game even with a 20% reduction to the abilities of the boss.
That is an insanely low number. At least to me it seems like it.
While I understand the numbers I fetched from guild ox very well are inaccurate, at the very least, they are accurate to the people that actually care about having downed the boss. People that are in guilds that actually care most likely have looked up their guild on one of those sites which means their data is there.
So we could refigure this number a little by making a few more unqualified assumptions. The 700,000 characters are characters from people that care, so lets divide that by our guesstimated third to cover most people having done it on at least three characters. So that would mean around 230,000 subscribers.
Using that number makes it even more crazy when looking at it compared to the 10.2M subscribers. That means a little over 2% of the subscriber base, the ones that actually cares about progression, have killed at least the first boss.
Are you F'N kidding me? 2% of the subscriber base actually care about raid content. That is it? They might be numbers based on inaccurate statistics because that was all I could find but I find that amazingly hard to believe. Yet, has hard to believe as it is, it does seem to sound somewhat reasonable.
So I ask the question, is raid content really compelling content?
If only 2% of the people actually care enough to do it then the answer does not need to be said by any of us. It is staring us right in the face. No, raiding content is not compelling content.
Don't get me wrong, I love to raid. The only time I have logged in on my main all week was to raid. I will log in to raid new content, old content, any raid really. I like to raid. I guess that makes me part of the 2%.
So you have to look at why that is. Why is raiding not compelling content?
I've got a few ideas on why that is and I'm going to share them.
1) Looking for raid:
If you will notice my numbers where based on the raid with a difficultly of at least normal. I did not include looking for raid. Even if we did include looking for raid I am left to believe that the number would not be much better. About a month ago ghostcrawler made a post about how around 2.5M characters have at least the looking for raid achievement for killing deathwing. He mentioned it as if it were some sort of triumph. But he was playing the accounting game with those numbers. Saying one number to make you think it means something else.
When he said 2.5M characters have completed it on at least LFR difficulty he wanted you, me and everyone else that read that to think that 25% of the player base has finished it. Even 25% is not a lot when you think about it but that would be a completely false statement. Just as I explained before 2.5M characters are not 2.5M players. Each and every one of us has probably finished it on at least 2 characters. Some weirdos like myself have completed it on at least 10. Some others have done it on even more. So 2.5M characters is no where even remotely close to 2.5M players.
So now that we see the LFR numbers in and of themselves are not all that impressive we need to add to that the fact that a great deal of people have completed it on the LFR difficulty and now have never even tried it on normal because they have already done it. This could very well be another reason for the low, extremely low, numbers we see from the people actually raiding at even normal content level. If anything, I am completely sure that is the reason there have been so few people having killed the easiest boss this tier on normal.
Removing the looking for raid option would make the normal raiding content more compelling. If people wanted to see the raid they would actually have to do it.
2) 10 and 25 man lockouts.
This is probably the biggest reason why raiding content is not all that compelling and we are seeing less people doing it. The way it was in wrath was you would run 10s (or 25s) with your guild on the week and 25s (or 10s) on the weekend in a pug. Now, with only one lock out you always have to save yourself for your guild so you run less.
This also means that the better players on their better geared characters run with their guild and are done for the week. In wrath the top guilds on the server would run their guild run on the weekdays and set up a pug on the weekends. Those better players would then be able to carry some lesser players and teach them. It allowed for more decent players in the mix which in turn made for better pugs with a higher chance of success and actually taught people how to play, which is the exact opposite of what looking for raid does.
Two lockouts also made people want to raid more because they could raid more. If we where raiding 10 mans on Thursday and there was a Tuesday pug going on for a 25 I would, or could, jump in on it without effecting my guild run. It made me want to play more because I could.
Not to mention if I know I was running on Thursday I had a reason to be on other days. I would be on trying to get into a 25 because I was running the 10 later. Now, I did not log on until Thursday because what was I going to do? Nothing. There was no reason for me to log on because I want to raid but there was nothing for me to raid.
10 and 25 man lockouts returning would make for more compelling raiding.
3) Difficulty:
I have absolutely zero complaints about the difficulty of dragon soul because there really wasn't much of any. I think I wiped more to the ball bugging out those first few weeks before it was fixed than I have on all other fights in there combined. Mind you, my guild is a decent guild but it is not as good as dragon soul made us look. We looked like we could be a hard core group if we stepped it up with the speed we went through there.
So I do not think the difficulty is high at all but looking around at the people in the LFR and the 2% number that have actually killed morchok it sure has hell seems like the majority of the player base thinks that the difficulty is too high.
If they added another difficulty level, something like a LFR difficulty but one you can assemble and not a random version, it could be compelling content.
What can be done to make raiding compelling content?
If that 2% number is correct, raiding is not compelling content.
If that 7% number is correct, raiding is not compelling content.
Even if that bullshit 25% number ghostcrawler tried to throw at us when talking about the looking for raid being a success proves that raiding is not compelling content.
If only 25% of the player base even cares to do a certain amount of content then that content is just not compelling and as we know, by GC's own numbers that 25% counted characters, not players, so it is really much lower.
What do you think needs to be done to make raiding compelling content and get more people doing it?
Two lockouts per week?
10s and 25s being separate lockouts?
Allowing people to do it more than once a week but only be awarded loot once a week?
Normal and heroic being separate lockouts?
Adding a new easier difficulty for assembled groups?
Awarding more loot?
Something needs to be done because to answer my own posts question, no, raiding is not compelling content for a large majority of the player base.
What would you suggest?
Things Begin To Take Shape In Stars Reach
4 hours ago
If I remember correctly, Zarhym and Bashiok (spelling) defended the introduction of LFR against 'elitists that want to keep raiding for the 2%' (or similar words).
ReplyDeleteFor some more comparisons, there was a PvP Poll back in early 2011 on the official Fora if and what kind of PvP people primarily prefered. On top of my head, about 11% (EU)/8% (US) liked Arena, 3% liked Rated BG, a good 8% liked XP_Off Twink games, and abt 30% liked regular BG's (spread across all levels).
Yet e.g. the WSG GY was changed to fit Rated play, regular players be damned.
Yes, the dark truth of WoW is that while it is supposedly a mass-market game of which all subscribers pay the same and hence would/should be equal customers as far as content goes, the money goes towards the pursuits of a teeny-tiny minority (Raiding, and, to a smaller degree, Rated PvP).
Note that this is different from e.g. Big Point-style 'F2P' games, where the 'whales' (the minority purchasing a lot of the content) actually keep the game afloat and hence are 'rewarded'' with content.
Also, if, like Nils, you look at all the dumbing down and changes to the game, it becomes clear how the cookie crumbles.
The levelling content was raped in short to make it easier for the Raiding minority to level- and gear up a new raiding alt.
Alternatives to Raiding (eg Winteraber, Home City reps and other Reps) get nerfed/altered, robbing people of gameplay, all so that the 'Raiding lifestyle' of endlessly doing the same Instances in your silly Tabards gives those rewards as well.
Same with Professions, same with the removal of Head enchants (as if they MATTERED outside a Raiding environment), same with a lot of stuff (Twinks were kicked out because they made Raiding alts feel bad, newcomers are there to be farmed by Heirloomers), everything gets seen from the minority view of the harcore Raider
PLUS
GC's wish to turn everybody into a little Raider (which of course means pissing off 'old style' raiders by making radiing itself less 'prestigious') and so have as many 'hurdles' to raiding removed (Keys, Atttunements, Resistance Gear etc).
I could go on - e.g. the hyperinflation rampant to WoW is partially caused by this whole 'Raiding is everything, and everybody should raid' mentality (wiping costs money, Raiding means wiping, but that would make wiping a hurdle so shower ppl with coin - iso just removing Durability altogether) - but that's the basic problem with the B-Team.
For more I can refer you to Nils post from the summer, but frankly people have argued about this for a long time.
So, this seems to back up my "found" numbers. My 2% was correct.
DeleteWith that said, why not just leave good enough alone. LFR has done nothing for the community except make it worse. If only 2% are still raiding even with it, leave it be. Let the 2% raid.
Give people back longer leveling. Give people back longer rep grinds. Give people back the game they want. They are losing subscribers because they are trying to turn everyone into raiders. Look at the numbers. Not everyone wants to be raiders.
Raiding is for the 2% because guess what... only 2% want to do it. As the numbers prove.
When will they wise up?
With your last comment, I really think that is what they are looking to do in MoP. They are adding so much "endgame" work with the multitude of factions, the specialization of cooking, pet battles, etc. that they are making a game for the majority.
DeleteI really feel that raiding has been devalued somewhat due to the addition of the guild feasts and cauldrons and the removal of the attunments, chaining potions and the removal of soul shards and arrows. Now, people just log on, raid (with all consumables provided), log off for the week. It makes for a very boring game.
LFR is a necessary part of the game since it lets Blizzard show off the art and feel of a raid to people who normally wouldn't see it. It isn't made for people who already raid. personlly, I have enjoyed it since my raid group fell apart right as DS came out and I have been too lazy to find another guild. While the challenge is greatly diminished for what I would like, it is nice to at least kill the big bad and get some pretty new gear so I feel like the character progresses.
One of the frustrating things about this all is that they first removed a lot of those kind of things like the Profession Specialisations (and Recipes, most notably the Blacksmithing TBC ones), now realize they made a mistake, but instead of returning the tried-and-true content , they gambit on people taking such an interest in a Profession that was considered so boring they had basically give it away for free (Cooking, Pilgrim's Bounty) to suddenly care about Sausage-Specialisation.
DeleteI know this is somewhat of speculation, but if I look at the various design teams, I can not help but feel that the B-team is in a sense preoccupied with destroying the A-team's WoW (and to a lesser degree) TBC content, in order to show that 'they can do better'. Much like how in the 90's every new Uncanny X-Men writer seemed to be preoccupied with destroying the characters (and often the X-Men HQ) of the previous writer.
Anon, Grumpy's GL:
ReplyDelete"When will they wise up?" Perhaps in Titan, I think, maybe.
Pretty much every idea Blizzard can come up with to try, they are trying at one point or another. Some work, a lot don't. This is and has always been the style of game development that Blizzard likes to do. Throw everything up against the wall and see what sticks.
In Starcraft, the original cost of the Zerg main base changed with every patch until on the last patch that I downloaded, it was back at it's original cost.
I predict that in the final expansion, somewhere around level 100 to 110 perhaps, the original style 31 point talent trees will be re-introduced for WoW. The current MoP talents are obviously meant for only the newest expansion and will be replaced again in the one beyond it. It is just how Blizzard rolls.
I don't mean to sound harshly critical of Blizzard by saying that. As an amateur pen and paper game designer, I know that not everything can and will work perfectly, despite the best of intentions. Changes are needed to keep things fresh and revisions to changes are inevitable in such a case, it just can't be helped.
So on the subject of raiding, I know I fall into the small class of raiders that Grumpy mentioned. Currently I am only maintaining two at raid status, but I have a large number more I could get there pretty quickly or are eligible already but I won't raid with them save for older content.
I like the teamwork raiding takes, and despite my tendency to dislike having my game play criticized, I do accept such and try to learn from it. That is part of being a good team player, in my never humble opinion.
On the other hand, I actually prefer just about all the solo things I can do to any group activity and the vast majority of toons over all the servers I play on are played solo. More content there is always appreciated.
Some activities, such as archeology, I found/find boring as can be and I haven't done much with that type content. Maybe later...
Level capping reputations without having to don a tabard is something I love doing. Several of my characters have done odd combinations of reputation grinds because of a trinket or mount reward at the end.
Then there are "my stay at home bankers" who almost never leave the city they are based in, but who keep gaining levels and reputations by doing a quick cooking/fishing quest.
I have one paladin who is level 70, through only going out questing with no gear other than her two handed sword, two rings, one necklace, and a couple of trinkets. Talk about Ironman all you want, but try doing it my way... (I sometimes wonder where she carries the trinkets...but I won't go there.)
Basically as far as the game will let me, I make my own fun within the parameters of what is allowed by the game. Blizzard's idea of fun and mine only accidentally coincide on occasion. I wish it did more often, but my style of finding my own fun has kept me entertained for over seven years now and likely will till the servers (or me) shutdown.
So yea, when will Blizzard wise up? Maybe in Titan...but I doubt it.
It is sad to see them destroying the leveling speed, the world all around and the old style grinds in an effort to make the end game more accessible to people that apparently don't have any intention to play the end game, as the numbers prove.
DeleteSo that leaves two options, real options that is.
1 - Make end game more compelling so people might actually want to do it.
2 - Go back to making the trip to end game more involved again.
Sadly, I do not see either happening. That 2% end game player base might grow to 3 or 4 percent in the future, but they can not make it an 80% thing.
They need to stop trying to herd everyone together into one group and continue with what made them so great to begin with, give something for everyone.
I agree with you.
DeleteThey realize the two options, and have been working on 1 (making Raiding more compelling) since forever, and, despite the piec ein the NYT about the failings of Cata, seem to be determined to keep chosing option 1.
That's what all the nerfings etc. are about, 'if only [hurdle X] wouldn't exist, people would Raid, so lets remove [hurdle X], consequences for other parts of the game be damned'
The problem however is that with mass-market games like WoW trying to squeeze people in the same suit is never going to work.
You are correct that WoW Vanilla 'worked' because of the 'Big Tent' approach.
TBC worked because while adding more emphasis on Raiding, and many aspects like 'Loot-shop Dungeon design' and faster/purely in-Zone Questing were as a result implemented (compare eg the Botanica et al. with places like Dire Maul and BRD, and the differences are striking) it also added more 'Wintersabers' and of course added Arena (wether that was an entirely good thing or not is up for debate).
WotLK 'worked' because it added the double-Lockout (making Raiders more relaxed and more eager to PuG because they could 'risk' a Lockout/week), the LFD (which however shouldn't have included the Rewards, that way people would do the Instances if they were actually interested in those), and still had the Vanilla content for old PnP types like me, even though WotLK additions made it less compelling (eg Heirlooms, the Quest Map tracker, no Red mobs in the starter zones - luckily they returend).
In short, during WotLK, there was the biggest cornucopia of content, with two 'extremes' (Vanilla-Journey of the Hero vs WotLK-sitting in Dala for Epics)and the TBC content as kind of a middle road (less Journey but at least tactical challenges & more 'Wintersabers').
And then Cata came with its 'Raid-or-die' philosophy, and hence subloss, with 4.3 being somewhat of a 'Jesus Patch' (transmog and Raid Finder) to staunch the bleeding.
Will MoP be better?
Personally, I don't expect this to be, not just because of the Beta (a.o.t. removal of choice in Quest rewards/transmog, removal of SM/Scholo, removal of existing Head chants, Accountwide Achievements removing completely innocent PvE Twinking; no statsquish but exploding stats instead), but because the same people that think that gated monstrosities like the Firelands Dailies are the epitome of casual content (newsflash: gated stuff like Dailies are NOT casual, if people like me liked scheduled & highly repetitive crap I'd be interested in the whole Heroics-Raiding hamsterwheel) are still at the helm, despite having caused massive sublosses.
That's actually the core issue: they let people who have interest in nor understanding pf certain parts of the game design those parts of the game, be it non-Rated PvP, levelling ,'casual'/solo content or Alliance/Lore.
One last thing: people like to say 'well MoP is because of Asia/China' but if Blizz takes away World mobkills/turn-ins from Reps (and Professions) and replace it all with Dailies, I personaly don't think they quite understand the Asian 'Zen of Grinding'.
Great post! If these numbers are anywhere close to accurate Blizz needs to take a long hard look at raiding in general.
ReplyDeleteIMO, the shared lock out was one of the single worst things introduced in the game. It killed 25m raiding which affects everything from server activity to its economy...even for non-raiders. It also means no longer can you do "the real raid" with your guild and then take your geared toon through a 10 player raid to help show a newbie the ropes.
Maybe blizz thinks LFR is showing them the ropes but nothing could be further from the truth. LFR is a "raid" with none of the consequences that matter in a real raid. Stand in bad stuff? No biggie! Don't switch to an add but pew pew the boss? No biggie. It doesn't teach people to raid. It teaches bad raiding habits.
Now, LFR is all fine and good if people just look at it as a fun casual way to see content. But it doesn't add to the raider pool or the knowledge pool. In that respect it detracts from it.
I think going back to separate lock outs for 10s and 25s is important to get raiding back on its feet. I hope they at least consider it.
Why do you need separate lockouts if you're already raiding on five different characters? How many raids a week are you looking to do?
ReplyDeleteI think it's hard to talk about how to make raiding more compelling if we don't know for sure what it actually is that most people spend their time on. The Renaissance Man played the numbers game in relation to raiding a couple of months ago, and his main conclusion was that more than half of WoW's subscribers don't even have a max-level character. Now that boggles the mind! It does make Blizzard's conversion rate of max-level characters into raiders a lot better though.
While it might have been a shocking revelation to some, the fact that the vast majority of the WoW subscribers doesn't even have a potential end-game hamster of their own isn't exactly new, it was the same during e.g. WotLK.
DeleteIn fact, it has been one of the staple arguments the more intelligent '8%' like(d) to use when the '2%' troll(ed) Threads about non-end game PvP (and other) concerns, with varying results (hamsterbrains at work etc.)
However, esp. looking at the '8%', the numbers get even more skewed if - and how - you count addtional accounts run by the same person.
Like many '8%'ers, I have multiple accounts, though they weren't and aren't always active at the same time. Both hold an end-cap 'hag' because of (a.o.t.) the abomination that are Heirlooms (they should have made a flat-XP multiplier or even a Paid levelling service instead), but like the vast majority of players I have a healthy (absolutely zero) interest in Raiding (which of course affects my inner 'Uncle Owen'/'breadmaker' but let's not digress; let's just say I hope the succes of Farmwille makes Lucas twitch about killing SWG with his 'hero factory' wishes)
Note that after the XP-Off/On split, quite a few '8%' started an additional account to run 'AV Twinks', in numbers significant enough that when Blizz kicked them out of regular BG's the first time, the resultant loss of those subs was enough to allow them back in. When China allowed its citizens to play WoW again, those subs didn't matter anymore, and the Heirloomers got their tear-stained wish again of removing the AV Twinks (AV Twinks kicked Heirloomer butt in just one Battleground in just two brackets, in just two battlegroups as far as the EU was concerned, of course a terrible affront to their - completely misplaced - feelings of 'awsumness'), despite the risk of Consumer Law issues that created for Expansion Holdouts.
Bottom line:
it was clear from the start that catering to 'PvE Progression fiends'/'elitist JERKS' was a recipe for disaster for virtual worlds/MMO's, as not only are they voracious consumers of (very specialised) content, they also bring out the worst both in players (e.g. the differences between currently playing a TBC/WotlK Heroic by LFD and playing an End Time Heroic - or even WotLK Heroic during WotLK - couldn't be starker; Cynwise is actually right about that one) and in design(ers) trying to cope with/promote such fiendishness (less choice and more world-killing Instanced content, e.g. raids in WoW were instanced because in old EverQuest the elitist Jerks would camp the worldbosses needed for progression just to prevent others from progressing).
Let's just hope more '2%' ers get their 'Saul to Paul' experience, and designers realize that 'sandbox' and 'Free-for-all PvP' aren't joined at the hip nor 'player choice' a dirty word.
I need separate ones because I would rather just play my main. You know, the one I enjoy playing the most.
DeleteI also want it because it would be easier to gear up my alts in case they are needed for the guild raid.
Double lockouts are only good. There is nothing bad about them.
They have the content tuned around 10 and 25 man anyway. Just make 2 lock outs and be done with it.
Them making it one lockout was one of the worst ideas ever introduced to the game.
It is like giving one of your employees a 100 dollar raise, letting him have it for a few years and then telling me, oops, I did not mean to give you that, and taking it back.
That is what blizzard did giving us 2 lockouts and taking it back.
You would be pissed at your boss wouldn't you? So you have the same right to be pissed at blizzard for doing the same thing.
From my point of view, I think you may have more luck if you try looking at the issue whilst wearing a different hat. I've played since Jan 2005 and, aside from Obsidian Sanctum, the only raid content I've seen has been as a solo player.
ReplyDeleteI think the raid content is about as compelling as it can get (it's just pixels, after all), and while there are restrictions on who can and can' gain access to the content, accessibility isn't a huge issue for those 'compelled' to experience it. For some, there are issues besides content that prevent them from 'devaluing raiding' for the 2%.
1. Time. WoW is a time-sink. It's a game, a way to kill an hour here or there. Some people don't have the time to gear up enough to the point they can access the raid content. Some people steer clear of certain types of gameplay (instances/raids) as they have other commitments and may be called away from the computer without warning. As stated, a significant portion of the WoW population hasn't had the time/desire (both?) to reach max level.
2. Other players. Raiding, a 10 or 25 person event, increases the chances one will be exposed to ass-hattery, snobbishness, snubbing etc. It's potentially a stressful environment and not many people I know are prepared to spend their treasured spare time dealing with the poor behaviour of others.
3. Personal taste. I've Loremastered twice - once as Alliance, once as Horde, and completed all heroic 5-mans. The quest content for me was a much bigger drawcard than raiding ever was, and I was very glad to read that you'd considered alternatives to making raiding more compelling. Longer levels? A week of work to get from 52 to 53? Ahh, vanilla - my fave flavour!!!
From my point of view, WoW more than caters for those willing to experience raiding content. It seems to me that content creators/devs spend so much time on it they try to get more people to experience it to justify the expense. But some end game content? Rep grinds? Don't insult my intelligence. Dailies were the beginning of the end of WoW for me. Firelands broke the camels back.
Perhaps a solution may be to decrease xp gain whilst levelling, and to make a smoother transition from max level through to raids through more intelligent quest rewards (gained through solo/group/instance/heroics)? It'd take the same amount of time for those who wish to push to the end, without the repetition of the dungeon/heroic gearing grind, and push many more players to experience more of the WoW world. More quests. Harder, more rewarding, group quests that can't be soloed and that don't give loot if a char of a high level assists in any way. Quests that must be soloed, a la Anathema (You want an heirloom? You go and quest for one - buying xp is a joke). Xp bonuses removed - heirlooms to retain stat growth. More random events along the lines of the Abomination in Duskwood, the infiltrators in Southshore. Bring back the epic, the adventure, and stamp on dailies.
The game has a lot of life left in it, but I definitely agree that they should be looking past the (very vocal) 2% for ideas.
I totally agree they need to decrease the xp gain while leveling.
DeleteMy basic comment here was the fact that they spend so much time and effort into trying to design a game where everyone can raid and not everyone wants to. A very small portion of people do.
So that means they either need to make the raid content more compelling so people will want to do it or they need to stop trying to design the game around the end game.
If so few are doing it because so few really want to or have the time to, they need to stop trying to force people into it and just make a little bit of everything for everyone's tastes.