Thursday, March 12, 2015

Some Stories, Happy, Cool, Funny and Mathematical

With no particular post in mind I thought I would share a collection of stories that I found interesting enough to share, maybe you will as well.

Happy:

I have 7 level 3 inns on my characters for various reasons.  Lets face it we all like gold and getting those 500 gold treasure missions is nothing to bark about.  I also like to see if I can recruit some different people.  On my main I recruit one a week and level it, even if I do not need it.  For me it makes me feel as if I am "progressing" someway even if only leveling a character I might not need and will only end up deactivating.

But there was also the underlining purpose of getting Soulare of Andorhal. Soulare is a follower you can recruit from the inn, should you be lucky enough to have him appear, that will give you a toy when you do the /tired emote to him.  The problem is that with seven inns recruiting every single week I have yet to see him as an option as someone I can hire.

While looking through the group finder yesterday for the pet battle daily so I could visit someones garrison and do it, as none of my 100s had it, I saw someone listing they had Soulare and everyone was welcome.

Color me a happy elf, I can start getting rid of inns on those alts if I really wanted to.  Will probably keep it on my main just because I am most active with it and those gold missions are awesome, even more so with the treasure hunter ability, but no more hoping for Soulare to appear.  Thank you very much random warcraft player for letting me visit your home and spend some time with the paladin that comes bearing gifts.  I now have my Wayfarer's Bonfire toy.

Cool:

I mentioned in my random thoughts about having issues with finding a group for the world boss Rukhmar on my paladin being I just hit level 100 and only have a health pool of a little over 200K.  Lets face it, skill can help some but can only help so much when you will end up taking some really big hits.  In those cases, gear does matter.  The one group I did manage to get into I did quite well as the off tank with the gear I had.

I was able to hold the boss both times the main tank died until the main tank managed to make his way back to the group.  Still, after a wipe, mostly thanks to more than two thirds of the group doing less than 10K DPS and my freshly dinged tank out DPSing them, they decided I was the issue and not the low DPS and removed me from group.  I was not particularly cool with that because while I know there are better options than me, I don't think I should have been the first one to be removed when DPS was the obvious issue and not my tanking.

Either way, we live to fight another day and fight I did.  I once again ran into the low health tank problem, but now up to a stunning 238K health, woot woot.  I signed up for a group checking off tank only.  Currently my offspec is retribution but with no two hander on me I really can not play ret now can I.  So I did not check DPS.

I do understand it is easier for a bad DPS to be carried in a group and I really should have grabbed myself a two hander and it would be no issue, but I am a stubborn elf that wants to be a tank on my paladin and likes to tank on my paladin and by the power of the light I will manage to do so even if I have to face persecution and ridicule.

I signed up for a group, as I said, with the tank only option check, and was invited instantly.  Perhaps this guy missed the fact I am a 616 item level right now, who knows, I am just glad that someone picked me up.  He then whispered me and we had this small exchange.

Raid Leader:  I will need you to switch to DPS please.
Me: I am sorry, I just recently dinged 100 and I do not have a two hander so I can't switch to DPS.
Raid Leader: But it says you have silver in DPS.
Me: DPS silver is really easy, I did it in prot spec.
Raid Leader:  Okay, stay prot.
Me: If you would like me to leave I would understand and have no problem with it.
Raid Leader:  No, that is okay, you can stay.
Me: Thanks, I will probably do more DPS as prot than I would as ret with a one hander anyway.

The other tanks handled all the heavy lifting, I never needed to take the boss at any point and we downed the boss no problem.  Unlike the other group that wiped and even as the fresh 100 I felt like I was trying to do it all in that group, in this group it felt like I was being carried, and I was.  I was very thankful he let me stay and was understanding.  It was a pretty cool thing for him to let me stay and I even won something and am now up to a 621 item level.  So double thanks.

Funny:

We were on iron maidens last night with a bunch of our non regular raiders and I am pleased to report that every single one of them managed to avoid the bombs from the first try on even if we ran out of time before we downed it.  I guess my explanation of how not to get hit by them was good, because even those notoriously bad at raid awareness managed to avoid them, how awesome is that.

What was wiping us was the end phase with the turrets.  It seemed that while they adapted instantly to my explanation on how not to get hit by bombs those lesser aware raiders were not so great at avoiding the turret fire.

We only managed to get a few attempts in but we pushed it to the last phase each of those four tries.  Not so bad considering we were with a group of 21 people where 10 of them had never seen the fight yet or even tested out the new LFR to see it.  So color me impressed.  Looks like some of those raiders that are not regulars are starting to get better at this.  I like to see that.  I'm always on the lookout for the next generation and that is why I do these runs, to see who has the potential.

At the end of every raid I always give everyone the pep talk going over what we did well and then give them some advice on what to look for, to do, to practice for next time.  We run this "come one come all" raid once a week, so it usually moves slow, but it is getting better.

Someone asked, any ideas on how I can get better with avoiding the turrets.  It was a reasonable question.  I am well known to give advice suggesting doing some weird things that actually help people get better with a mechanic.

I used to practice kiting and moving in that area the argent tournament quest sent you were you needed to be on the horse to down the commanders.  I figured with their shield I could never kill them, and it let me practice both kiting and DPSing on the move.  I often give people advice like that, things they can to that can help them with getting better at the game.  There are many things in game you can use to help you become a better player, you would be surprised.

So what was my advice for practicing how to avoid the turrets so they would be better at it next time?

Go do the LFR now that it is out.  If you really want to practice how to avoid the turrets that is the best place to do it because there is one thing for sure in the LFR, no one is going to switch to them, so you will get a lot of practice.

That ended the night on a high note as we all got a good laugh out of it.  Not sure what is funnier, the comment or the fact it is true.

Mathematical:

While talking about my incredibly horrible luck with getting the same piece of mythic highmaul gear from my highmaul cache three times in a row someone pointed out something mathematically interesting about that, even if it does not ease the pain of getting the same item three times in a row.

Based on what he said, there are 16 items that a hunter can get from the mythic cache, I have not double checked but that does seem reasonable.  In any given cache, assuming that some items do not have a greater probability weight and they are all equal, the chance of getting any certain piece is 1 in 16, or 0.0625 or 6.25%, however you feel like thinking about it.

Being each cache has the same 6.25% chance of any given item each time you open one the chance of getting the same one twice is a row is 6.25% times 6.25%.  That is a 0.390625% chance of happening.  The chance of getting it three times in a row would be 6.25% times 6.25% times 6.25% which would make it 0.0244140625%, or in other words, an insanely low chance.

For the sake of taking this to the extreme lets consider variables.  While we do not know what the chances of getting something with a gem slot, warforged or with a tertiary stat is so there would be no way we could ever get an even remotely accurate guess here, lets pretend that all things remain equal.

That would mean that every piece of gear has 8 different types it could be.  Standard, with a gem slot, warforged, with a tertiary stat, with a gem slot and warforged, with a gem slot and a tertiary stat, warforged and with a tertiary stat, and of course the most sought after one with all three bonuses on it.  That means our 16 different pieces could actually be 128 different pieces.

What would our numbers look like then?

The odds of getting any one item would be 0.78125% (rounded to 5 digits after this because this is about to get really long).  The odds of getting the same piece twice in a row is 0.00610%, three times is 0.0000476%.

Now we know these are all made up numbers at this point and probably no where near accurate but the idea is that the odds of getting the same three pieces in a row are probably higher than the odds of getting bit my a shark, hit by lightning, or winning a small lottery in most states.

So as my friend tells me, I am not really unlucky, I am actually the luckiest person to ever play the game to have something that is so astronomically improbable happen.  Not like it makes me feel any better, I still feel quite unlucky, but at least now I know my odds of getting something different next time have to be pretty damn good.   Because if I get the same thing a forth time it will start to reach the point where the odds of earth being invaded by aliens next tuesday is higher than me getting the same piece once more in a row.  So if I get the same piece again next time prepare to be invaded because that is more likely.

10 comments:

  1. I don't get heroic because I didn't even do normal, but my normal highmaul caches I have only gotten gauntlets 3 times so far. So maybe certain slots have a higher chance of dropping?

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    1. It is completely possible that some have a higher chance than others. As I said we do not know the inner numbers so everything I said was all made up, but if all things being equal, you too might be responsible for an alien invasion, not just me. ;)

      At least the gloves are BoE, or at least the mail ones for me were. So I guess that is "sort of" a plus right?

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  2. Anon, Grumpy's former Guild Leader:

    Ah geeze, we are going to be invaded by aliens for sure now...

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    1. You can almost count on it with my luck. :P

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  3. It's almost certainly the case that some slots have a higher chance than others. I've gotten three necklaces (the same neck) in a row. First was regular, second warforged, third regular. Also, there's absolutely no way that getting a unmodified piece and getting a WF or gem or tertiary or all three have the same probability. If you got all three with the same tertiary, then I'll impressed! :-P

    Oh, and unfortunately, the odds of getting the same piece next time goes back up to 1/16 (if that's what the chances of getting it once). see gamblers fallacy. Not to say aliens won't invade...

    I'm really excited to see probabilities here though! I wonder how much gear chances Blizzard releases. Maybe it's in the datamined info somewhere. hmmm... :-) projects!

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    1. Neck for me too, 3 in a row, same one. Before that two mythic rings in a row, same ring. My friend, who I would like to shoot, got the mythic scales of doom, with a gem slot, two times in a row. :(

      The chance of each one is the same, the probability of getting the same one however is why it goes up. Every box might have a 1 in 16 chance but it is figuring the probability of getting the same piece twice and then three times.

      Think of it as a die. For example, if I were to try and roll a 5, or any number that I rolled first really, 5 times in a row, it is looking for a specific thing.

      So it would be, basically, .1667 x .1667 x .1667, x .1667, x .1667 x .1667 which leaves you with a 1 in 7776 chance of that happening. It would not be just a .1667 chance for each one, just the same as it would not be just a 1/16 chance for this example because we are searching for a specific result, not "any" result.

      Only the first result would be 1/16, after that any result won't do, only a specific one will, so the numbers go up.

      Admittedly my numbers are still wrong, but the chance of that happening is not 1/16, it is quite higher.

      But seemingly not that odd as it has happened to you as well, and it seems others too. So there has to be, as you said, certain weights on what drops.

      WTB repeat protection on caches.

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  4. Man, if they invade on reset day..

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    1. There will be hell to pay, but don't go blaming me, it is not my fault I am unlucky.

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  5. Great post. The maths is off. The odds of getting the same piece from a list of 16 three times in a row isn't 1 in 16x16x16, becasue there are 16 different sets of three that would be the same. The real odds of getting the same piece three times in a row are 1 in 16 x 16 (which is 1 in 256).

    You'd have to specify which piece it was going to be in advance of opening the first box for it to be 1 in 16 x 16 x 16.

    Still, your luck sucks. If its any consolation, so does mine.

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    1. The luck sucks either way and I know the math is off, it was more a for fun sort of thing. Math is also off because we really do not know the exact number of things we can get or the weights of chances to get each of them. There are so many variables that even if the basic math was right, it would probably still be wrong.

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