MMO-C recently posted about the raid completions based on the data they were capable of collecting. It is not entirely accurate, and they admit that, because it does not track everyone in game. They can only fetch so much data, it is to no fault of their own. They can however scan for achievements, and they are using those to track it as best they can. This is a very good way to do so even if the possibility of someone not coming up in the achievement scan is completely possible.
So while their numbers might not be 100% accurate I can believe that that are a reasonably informed guess. Enough so that I am willing to play with those numbers, because they are all we have, and I'll consider them close to accurate, + or - a margin of error of course. That margin of error is most likely small however.
They say that there are characters not in guilds that are not counted, but then again they most likely count characters multiple times as well, even if they say they have taken every effort to count only "players" and not characters. The reason for that is because you can disable being tracked by not sharing achievements.
So if you have 6 characters that have defeated garrosh they can tell, based on achievements, that those 6 characters are indeed the same player, so they count it as one player. This is an excellent move to help us try to get more accurate information.
Unless of course you have someone like me to throw a money wrench into things. By disabling tracking my 6 characters will show as 6 different players as I do not choose to show shared achievements and because of that they can not connect my 6 as being from the same player.
So for each extra player I seem to be because it counts me as 6 players it might even out for the players they admit to have had possibly missed. If anything, it might even over count it. It is quite possible that the number of players they counted is more than have actually done it. But for the purpose of this post I am going to call it even. The ones they might have missed we will consider equal to the ones they did count but did not realize were the same person because they disabled achievement sharing like I did.
With that said, their numbers show that of the 2.9 million players (not characters) they were able to track 11% have defeated garrosh at one level of raiding or another. Be it LFR, flex, normal or heroic. 11% of those 2.9 million players have a confirmed wing four kill.
11% of 2.9 million equals 319,000 players have finished this current tier of raiding even at its lowest level.
The last subscriber count I recall seeing, and I can be wrong here, was 7.7 million subscribers. 319,000 of that 7.7 million players is roughly equal to 4% of the player base.
Is 4% really equal to "more people raiding than ever before"?
I knew the numbers for raiding were low but really, not even I would have believed that they were that low. 4% of the player base, which includes the easiest of formats, have beaten the last boss of the expansion.
There has to be some miscalculation here. Something I missed, something MMO-C missed. Because even if raid participation is low, it can't be that low, can it?
If that number was 4% have finished normal, I could buy that as acceptable. But with flex and LFR shouldn't those numbers be much higher? Perhaps this says sometimes about the difficulty of those formats.
When my guild downed garrsoh 5 people in my core raid team got the achievement. Meaning 5 people had not even done it in LFR, the easiest version you can get the achievement in. Why do you think that is?
I actually laughed and asked them did they even try to do it. They all said the same thing, no. LFR just is not worth the effort, the stress, the wait. LFR is just not an option. They all figured they would wait until we did a guild group for flex or normal to get it done, no rush.
The no rush approach works because we are a casual guild, but we are a casual guild that does down things. In time of course, well behind the "raider" curve, but we get stuff down. If these are people capable of getting stuff down and they are not even doing the LFR doesn't that say something about the content as a whole? To me it does, it says that content is unplayable in its current format. But that is not news coming from me, I've been saying that about the LFR for a long time now.
But now things have changed, now I have some actual numbers to work with, numbers that say 4% of the players in the game, 11% of the ones counted in that one study, a really small amount, have even been capable of completing the content on what most might call easy mode.
That kind of means, to me at least, that LFR is not the easy mode people make it out to be. Maybe that is because of what I just mentioned. Lots of people that are capable of downing things are not doing the LFR. Do you know how many people in that 10 man got their first garrosh kill in LFR? One.
After three months I would except the completion rate, thanks to the addition of LFR and flex, to be in the 30% of all players range, maybe even higher, but looking at MMO-C you will notice that none, as in absolutely none, of the raids have a 30% player completion rate.
MV has the highest at 74% of 2.9 million players, where if we use the same formula, works out to be roughly 29% of the total player base. And that is the oldest, and the easiest now thanks to some people going in there that over gear it for quick valor and making the runs super easy.
Makes you think with those as super easy as they are now thanks to massive over gearing, and still not even 30% of the player base is seeing this content at its easiest you have to think, like I do sometimes, maybe there is something wrong with the LFR.
But not to turn this into an LFR bashing post I will go back to the main topic and go back to wondering what I was wondering, how only 4% of the player base could have finished this tier already.
Even if we do not include the entire wow player base, by extending it as I did, and just take MMO-Cs numbers as the definitive numbers based on wanna be raiders at least, because their names would show, that 11% is extremely low. With the wanna be raider crowd don't you think all of them, or near all of them, would have at least downed garrosh at the LFR level and not just 11%. That 11% could be even lower once you figure people like me count multiple times there. It could very well be 10% or even 9% using their own data if there was a way to filter me out from counting as multiple people.
Like I said, I would have expected 30% of the player base to have killed garrosh in one form or another already. Heck, even 30% of the wanna be raiders that MMO-C counted would have been better, but 4% and 11%, wow, those numbers are amazingly low.
So two questions for you out there.
What form did you get your first garrosh kill or did you kill him yet? For me it was flex.
Do you think the numbers of people actually raiding at any level should be higher or is 4% all you would have expected? As said, I would have expected at least 30%.